Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.043830 33.481648 37.429788 42.367706 48.480002 55.943248 65.989931
2025-06-01 25.043623 29.318706 34.675390 42.114371 52.607243 67.675428 92.814667
2025-06-08 21.697903 26.276484 32.379435 41.556539 55.978073 80.037990 130.705384
2025-06-15 19.361580 24.044741 30.588193 41.076430 59.165881 93.986010 189.531463
2025-06-22 17.665079 22.380805 29.225973 40.806037 62.520517 110.686912 293.065609
2025-06-29 16.173288 20.787637 27.674978 39.811403 64.135999 125.198716 455.356823
2025-07-06 15.599901 20.444313 27.957110 41.986142 73.069642 169.215544 1490.785968
2025-07-13 14.637135 19.395386 26.938922 41.519827 75.930508 199.427983 8098.722580
2025-07-20 13.942463 18.685380 26.378502 41.804751 80.862597 249.679789 NaN
2025-07-27 13.355116 18.084729 25.920209 42.188782 86.365476 322.504400 NaN
2025-08-03 12.771303 17.436755 25.297710 42.090599 90.502698 409.911154 NaN
2025-08-10 12.184420 16.737461 24.506858 41.468735 92.740293 502.584708 NaN
2025-08-17 11.739330 16.248534 24.065674 41.608723 98.051947 707.209240 NaN
2025-08-24 11.282102 15.708118 23.476872 41.299696 101.697182 989.699597 NaN
2025-08-31 10.837462 15.160779 22.825762 40.730895 104.133906 1397.433802 NaN
2025-09-07 10.441510 14.672979 22.247456 40.253368 106.874343 2184.730047 NaN
2025-09-14 10.100223 14.259574 21.779295 39.985878 110.626386 4405.368448 NaN
2025-09-21 9.716273 13.751608 21.086049 39.021091 110.467065 7768.757489 NaN
2025-09-28 9.651784 13.798181 21.499576 41.122541 128.796488 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.359896 13.424743 21.028551 40.671271 132.063073 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.149783 13.186935 20.819031 40.946351 140.690131 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.960453 12.976616 20.650006 41.317293 150.872898 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.746223 12.710596 20.343504 41.222367 157.754153 NaN NaN